Born Slippy, Losing, Epsom and The Man

EPISODE 20 – Born Slippy, Losing, Epsom & The Man

Very much a mixed bag in this episode. I’ll be looking at the issue of the abandonment of meetings half-way through after deterioration of the ground. Then onto a bit of navel-gazing concerning a very poor punting run that I’m on at present with some ideas of how to deal with this, followed, ironically, by a few insights I’ve got into the Oaks and Derby at Epsom this week. I’ll be finishing up with something that’s going to be way more joyous and uplifting about a racing hero of mine who died last week – and he’s probably not who you think he is

Let’s crack on then with the WRAP’s take on an issue that’s sprung to importance in the last week; racecourses abandoning meetings half way through following deterioration of the ground to the point where horse and jockeys safety is compromised. Beverley, Haydock and Chester have all suffered this blight on their racing programme, with horses slipping on bends and some actually falling, with the obvious implications this has for horse and jockey safety. 

Now, in the age of social media and Google, everyone is an instant expert on everything from macro-economics in a recession, to epidemiology in the covid outbreak to now, ground curation at a racecourse. Apparently – and I use that word advisedly – the issue appears to be racing starting on ground with moisture in, followed by intense drying due to a combination of wind and sunshine, leaving the top more slippy than is acceptable or prudent to ride on. This, coupled with running rail alignments rendering some bends tighter than usual (and at Chester in particular, this is VERY tight), meant jockeys were not confident about riding their mounts into these areas of the course with the required degree of confidence. Quite rightly, despite the bluster of some racegoers that jockeys were being windy and were scared to ride, their safety concerns (for both themselves and their mounts) were given priority and racing was abandoned.

In a very real sense, you know the nearer their destinations the more they were slip sliding away,

As to what can be done, like I said, I’m prepared to leave this to the Clerks of the Courses. They have years of experience in curating the ground at their courses and it may just be these abandonments are a statistical anomaly, and meetings being called off in quick succession was bound to happen one day. A tentative suggestion may be to re-visit the notion of man-made intervention to produce so-called’ safe’ racing ground – basically, ground without any jar to it….in laymans terms, that would be anything with ‘firm’ in the going description. Was there anything wrong with letting nature take its course and allowing a horses owner and trainer decide if it should run on the declared going, provided said declared going is a true and accurate description and not a figment of the clerks imagination? Some horses act on ground as hard as a road – some don’t, but the trainer who sees the horse every day is surely the one best placed to decide if it should run on the declared ground.

Like I said, I’m not an expert in the preparation of turf for racing; my background when I’m not putting together this podcast, is, however, in marketing and it’s THAT area that is of biggest concern to me, in examining the implications for abandoning racing.

Jumping straight in here then, Chester’s response to its abandoning of racing last Saturday, was a textbook example of how NOT to win friends (or customers) and influence people.

Let me just quote you the statement The Chester Racecourse Executive put out in the immediate aftermath of the abandonment of racing: 

‘Unfortunately racing was abandoned today due to concerns from the stewards and jockeys regarding the ground.

The final decision not to race was taken by the British Horseracing Authority Stewards. Horse and Jockey welfare is paramount and we respect their decision.

As per our terms and conditions, no refunds will be offered after the feature race’

I’ll just pause to let that sink in.

No apology to racegoers or expression of empathy that a costly day out had ended so swiftly and disappointingly.

No leadership, preferring to hide behind this being down to some faceless bureaucrats in the BHB, which, whilst technically correct, butters no parsnips with the racegoers at The Roodee on Saturday who would have assumed that they were customers of Chester Racecourse and operations management for every aspect of the day’s entertainment was down to Chester Racecourse.

Finally of course, short of saying ‘You’re not getting your money back – now eff off home!’ can you imagine any more cack-handed way of handling this? A day out for the racing public has been cut short through no fault of their own. Most will have spent a lot of money on entry, food and drink travel, possibly accommodation and for owners and trainers, a horses entry fees too. Maybe the offer of a discount for all ticket holders to another Chester meeting this season? Even a voucher for a free drink or money off food and drink? 

Nope.

At a time when racing is having to fight for every ‘Leisure £’ from families in the midst of a cost of living crisis, Chester Racecourse put  an ‘Up Yours’ spear on a ‘Cruise Missile’ of disappointment with this pile of offal!

Who the hell runs Chester’s Public Relations? The Westboro Baptist Church?

Yeah, yeah. ‘Lessons will be learned’ and all that usual mealy-mouthed stuff. 

Why can’t Racing in the UK, as an holistic entity, develop some foresight and contingency planning for this kind of event which, as we’ve seen, is now becoming more prevalent. It’s as if our leaders are determined to keep portraying themselves akin to some 19th Century squire, who, having discovered the eldest son has got a scullery maid in the family way, sends her to the New World for a termination. I mean any more out of touch with the public and you’d be in the running for a job in the Conservative Party cabinet!

************

Okay, the story is developing as I record this podcast. It’s now the evening of Monday 30th May and Lingfield has been added to the roll of dishonour today, with two races there abandoned, once more due to horses slipping on a bend and compromising their and their pilot’s safety. Naturally social media has gone into overdrive, with it being due to overwatering, insufficient watering, watering on firm ground and the sun going nova in Uranus if you read all the guesswork masquerading as informed comment on Twitter and Facebook. 

I DO think clerks of courses have a tough job but their sole objective is to produce ground on which racing can take place and then to give an accurate description of the going. It’s then down to connections to decide to race or not.

I think it’s only fair that I should point out that after 48 hours admittedly, Chester have offered racegoers there on Saturday an apology, putting out a statement today which read:

“We would like to apologise to racegoers for the curtailment of racing on Saturday and the disappointment this will have caused. We will be contacting ticket holders over the next few days with more information. The immediate priority was to close the raceday safely and we apologise for not communicating this clearly on Saturday”

Which sort of begs the question that if the priority was closing the raceday safely, why were racegoers allowed to stay on course until after what would have been the last race. I’d say ‘commercial imperative’ but I’m just an old cynic and let’s not be churlish.

Okay – abrupt handbrake turn into something different though equally depressing in many respects.

Whilst I constantly strive to ensure The WRAP covers all aspects of UK and Irish Racing, not just the betting angle – and this is never going to be a tipping service as you should have gathered by now if you been with us since Episode 1 – it’s daft to ignore punting as a key aspect of racing.

In doing so, I constantly strive to ensure our listeners punting is an uplifting experience, conducted within safe boundaries of you never chasing losses or betting more than you can afford to lose. I like to think that we are dealing with savvy, clued-up racing fans who whilst having fun in their betting, do like to take it seriously because that’s certainly the apporoach I have when putting my money down.

All of which is by way of teeing you up to let you know I’m in one long losing run with my betting and whilst that doesn’t mean I’m suddenly a ‘problem gambler’ about to lose my house and car a family, it does make me question my mindset, no, the whole psychological approach to placing a bet in such circumstances. There has to be an upside to backing losers on a consistent basis right? For me, it’s the opportunity on this podcast, to delve into how I handle this and to put the question out there as to how you, our listeners, handle a losing run?

A little about me as a punter.

I tend to play in races where there is little hard information to go on and you have to be smart and or harder-working than the rest of the market to come up with punting angles. Two-year old races and three year old handicap races on the flat, bumpers and novice hurdles over jumps then. The areas where I think I know more than others – where I have an ‘edge’ if you like, is in breeding, speed figures and hard statistical analysis. You could say I’m a numbers-driven punter, though I’ve certainly no background in mathematics. I can spend several hours before a race studying the form on this basis and have the discipline to come up with ‘no bet’ course of action if nothing jumps out after all this cogitation. I tend to bet in ‘tens and fivers’ so am about as far from a high-roller as you can get and am comfortable in betting at prices upwards of 3/1, figuring I can intuit ‘value’ at this price range, whilst I can at prices shorter than this – something that 30 years of record keeping shows to be a basic truth.

So that’s me before hitting the racecourse or online bookies. What sort of ‘losing run’ are we talking here?

Well, I probably have a couple of punts a week, almost without exception win singles or each-way singles. I’ll ‘fess up to having a long-term multiple on the Cheltenham Festival up to 10 months in advance but as far as ‘exotic’ bets go, that’s it.

My last win single bet was on EDWARD CORNELIUS in a 5 furlong Class 3 Handicap at Thirsk on April 9th. Since then there have been a few each-way bets landed but I am not in profit and my confidence in my method and ability to read form with any degree of knowledgeable insight, is shot to pieces. 

Yes, there have been some insightful each-way returns – PENDLETON, who came 3rd at 18/1 in a 6f Class 2 Handicap at York on May 11th, when I spotted the cheekpieces had been re-applied on this previous course winner who was 3lb below his previous winning mark. Sound insights based on assiduous form study, resulting in insights seemingly largely ignored by the rest of the market, but by and large my selections, in the lyrics of the song ‘Sunrise’ by Pulp, range from ‘pathetic to piss-poor’.

Now, I do have the self-awareness to realise this is probably very far from entertaining for the average listener. Nonetheless I do hope it has traction with the vast majority of you…I mean those who aren’t living the Billy Liar fantasy life where every bet’s a winner and they are perpetually in profit. 

I know – again through assiduous long-term record keeping – that I have turned in a small profit over my punting life, largely driven by the occasional huge win, backed with a steady stream of winners (around the 15%, mark, in the 3/1 – 12/1 price range on average). I also know with every fibre in my being, that for the most part, I get a lot of fun and excitement out of punting – but that is very far from the case at present with losing bet following losing bet and worse still, very rarely my even having a damn good shout and a bounce as my punts resolutely fail to do what I expect trailing in with post case comments like ‘always in rear….never nearer….faded final furlong……pulled up….tailed off’ to rub salt into the wounds.

All of which leads one to contemplate the very essence of one’s punting. 

What do you do?

Give up? Stop for a while? Change your entire methodology? Punt more conservatively in the hope of backing a…well, ‘any’ winner? Follow a tipster? Follow the crowd?

Most of those so-called answers are total anathema to me. I loathe favourite backers, tipsters and those who jump on a punt as it develops without any independent assessment themselves beyond just ‘following the money’. If I’m going down, then I’m going down not wondering why or how but based on my decisions and mine alone.

So there we are. The takeaway from this big old blues jam? Well I’m damned if I know, other than to share a situation I’m in which I’m sure is familiar to many listeners, if you’re scrupulously honest with yourselves. There are no answers to this. You can’t call up David Leadbetter like you can if you’re a golfer that needs to correct his swing. You can’t Google Martin Lewis like you can if you’re on the verge of penury and need some money-saving tips. Nope. It’s a case of ‘physician heal thyself’ – or in my case, being a bit of a numbers and stats freak, ‘physicist heal thyself’.

So with those self-made platitudes ringing in my ears, I’m off on holiday the week after next….far, far away from the form book, Racing TV and Oddschecker. Time to get some level vibes, some sunshine, exercise and reconnect with a life outside racing for a couple of weeks. Come back to it fresh aroung Glorious Goodwood.

However, having confessed as to how gash my punting is at present and because I’m big on irony, there’s the small matter of The Oaks and Derby at Epsom this coming weekend to consider! 

What can I tell you about the protagonists there that you may not know already?

Sweet Felicity Arkwright in all probability since these races garner more column inches and entrenched viewpoints than ‘Partygate’ and ‘Sir Beer Korma’ could ever dream about. Nonetheless, I’ve been burning North Sea fields full of midnight oil on them, as you do so pin back your ears and get a load of this.

I’m recording this on the Monday before the Epsom meeting, so of course all the runners are not yet finalised. At present, there are 12 fillies declared for The Oaks, four from the Aiden O’Brien yard, in the shapes of CONCERT HALL, THOUGHTS OF JUNE, THE ALGARVE and TUESDAY. In addition, John and Thady Gosden are represented by present favourite EMILY UPJOHN as well as NASHWA. I’m majoring in on those two trainers since they have won 9 out of the last 10 runnings of this race. Certainly if all four O’Brien fillies stand their ground then you’d have to think he doesn’t have one outstanding candidate to put up against EMILY UPJOHN, or he and ‘the lads’ as he calls his paymasters at his Ballydole Stables, don’t know what the pecking order there is.

If she does stand her ground then THOUGHTS OF JUNE could be a lively outsider. Her Dosage Profile (which, to recap, is a pedigree by numbers ‘hack’ which lean on heavily, because most punters don’t!) has a perfect fit to the last 10 Oaks Winners. Her win in the Cheshire Oaks last time looks solid enough form run as it was in a good time with the winner looking better the further she went, with another furlong at Epsom looking to suit. 

Emily Upjohn looks plenty short enough and whilst she was sent to Epsom for a racecourse gallop last week, there’s still questions to answer on her ability to handle the track in the hurly-burly of a Classic race. Her stablemate and second favourite NASHWA has fewer worries on that score based on her impressive win on the switchback cambers of Goodwood last time out. The worry with her is more her stamina for this 12 furlong trip. Nonetheless, Hollie Doyle rides and what a story that would be if she – both Ms Doyle and the horse – were to win on Friday.

Having talked about Thoughts of June as regards the O’Brien quartet, that thumbs-up from me earlier was based purely on her price (currently around 20/1). TUESDAY boasts easily the best form of the O’Brien horses, coming second to the impressive Homeless Songs in the Irish 1,000 Guineas over what was surely an inadequate 1 mile at the Curragh last time. She currently trades at around 7/1 and rates a better bet than the similarly priced stablemate CONCERT HALL who was third in the Irish Guineas and is the most exposed horse currently declared for the race.

WITH THE MOONLIGHT is the sole Godolphin representative and that fact alone means she commands respect. Maybe she lacks stamina on breeding, notwithstanding her win over 10 furlongs at Newmarket last time.

ROGUE MILLENIUM has a 100% record in her two races, which included the Lingfield Oaks trial last time out. The form of that race is nothing to shout about, but she has been supplemented at the final forfeit stage by her owners, so they clearly have belief in her. Maybe the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot would have been a better bet but you’ve got to dream haven’t you?

I’d have loved to see MAGICAL LAGOON declared for this race because she hits a slew of my statistical sweet spots. She wasn’t though, connections presumably keeping her fresh for the Irish Oaks later next month.

Of the rest MOON DE VEGA looks far too speedily bred to last the mile and a half challenge posed by this race. KAWIDA may improve on her 3rd in a Group 3 race over 10 furlongs on her seasonal reappearance and may be of interest but has never put up a stellar speed figure in her five runs to date – she’s a consistent enough yardstick though. Ditto TRANQUIL LADY who was ultra-impressive last time in taking a Group 3 at Naas over 10 furlongs and could well improve again on the expected better ground at Epsom – but will she come over from Ireland or is she more one for the Irish Oaks at The Curragh. CHINGH SHIH currently trades at 100/1 which is probably a little unfair, given she’s a daughter of the Group 1 winning Madam Chiang and was staying on nicely behind Emily Upjohn in third in the Musidora at York, over what looked an inadequate extended 10 furlongs. Whilst it’s hard to see her reversing that form, trainer David Simcock knows the family well and 12 furlongs with a bit of rain would make her an interesting outsider.

At this stage then, I’m interested in THOUGHTS OF JUNE is she runs, with any rain adding to my interest.

24 hours later and it’ll be time for the 2022 of the greatest race in the UK racing calendar, the Derby, sponsored by Cazoo, round the twists and turns of Epsom Downs. 

Whilst I think I’ve got some fresh unconsidered lines on the protagonists in The Oaks, I honestly can’t say the same for the Colts running in the Derby. Like I’ve said I look at breeding and sped figures for an initial entry into sorting out where the value may lie in a race but I’d be lying if I said that has thrown up anything of real interest in the Derby, where on my reading, the market as it stands at the 18-runner, 5-day declaration stage, appears to be spot on.

DESERT CROWN looks a worthy favourite on his breeding and the classy shift he put in when taking what is historically a very decent trial in The Dante at York, putting up a big speed figure on my calculations in doing so. After only two runs, you’d have to think there was still more improvement to come from him and Sir Michael Stoute is just the trainer to eke that out. Only CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD has put up a bigger speed figure and he too has a promising looking breeding profile. After being upped in distance in his two runs this season, he’s never looked back – literally, after his front-running performance in taking the Chester Vase last time out. He probably has less scope for improvement than Desert Crown, but conversely his experience and uncomplicated front-running style counts for plenty around Epsom’s unique test and if he does stand his ground at final declarations then he’d be of interest at around the 7/1 mark.

 Like I said though I wouldn’t put anyone off backing STONE AGE, PIZ BADILE (with Frankie Dettori jocked up), WESTOVER (improving speed figures with every run), STAR OF INDIA and EYDON, based on my analysis – and that makes for a mighty long shortlist. I’ll also throw in SONY LISTON at odds of upwards of 50/1, if he settles better than he has done in his two runs to date. He looks to have the stamina for the race and whilst his third behind Star of India over a mile and two furlongs in a Listed race at Chester last time out doesn’t scream ‘Derby Winner!’ he was staying on well, and like I said, he pulled like a train throughout that race so did well under the circumstances. 

Gun to my head this far out (I’m recording this on Monday before the race) I’d be most interested in CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD, but it would only be for absolute buttons and hand on heart I can see myself not having a punt come racetime – sometimes you don’t need to, you just sit back and watch the drama unfold.

I want to sign off this podcast with a tribute and, forgive the pomposity but, well, my show, my rules, eulogy to a real hero in the racing world.

I’m not talking about Lester Piggott. My involvement with racing began largely after he hung up his boots and though I know my history as far as he‘s concerned and many analysts whose opinions I respect say he was the greatest jockey ever, I can’t really warm to him. Most of the stories I’ve read about him, purportedly showing what a character he is, make him sound sarcastic and selfish and that’s not someone I can remember with fondness. If he was the greatest jockey ever, then that’s a great line to carve on his gravestone and I’ll leave it at that.

Graeme Dand – otherwise known by his Twitter handle as ‘theformanalyst’ – now here was a piece of work of a human being.

I hope you’ve heard about Graeme these last few days. I got to interact with him on Twitter only as recently as last September when I launched The WRAP, so I’m no kind of expert on the guy, but initially drawn to him by his cogent and well-delivered analysis of a race or of a days’ racing, I soon discovered the guy had been diagnosed with terminal bowel cancer last June.

He had a wife (Denise) and three kids, Sofia, Olivia and Jude as I discovered in chatting with him (oh yeah, he had plenty of time for me and for anyone who pinged a tweet at him). Furthermore, far from hiding his disease and treatment from the world, if he was going to die then he was going to go out on his shield and tell his story with brutal honest, bravery and in a self-effacing style that endeared him to his may followers on social media.

Of course, the inevitable happened. He never got that one in a million break we all wanted him to have. Fighting this Godawful disease with humour and resilience and courage wasn’t enough and nor was the great well of love he had from his family first and foremost and ‘Racing Twitter’ a close second. 
 
 

Graeme died peacefully, surrounded by his family on the evening of 25th May, surrounded by his family.

After hearing of his death, I wrote on Twitter something I still hold 100 % to be true; that his family were lucky. Lucky to have known this huge life force, capable of uniting the sometimes bitchy and small-minded little worlds of Racing and Social Media, for the many years that they did. I ‘knew’ Graeme, in the loosest sense of the word’ for 8 months over the course of which I’d definitely make him one of the most inspirational and courageous people I’ve ever had the good fortune to come across.

I am fully aware that in the welter of tributes he will so justifiably receive for his life well-lived, this one from me will rank as easily the least important and most disposable. 

But…..well….Graeme Dand …..one of our own…..don’t ever forget him.

That’s it then for this, Episode 20 of The WRAP. I never thought I’d make it past about 10 so major kudos to everyone who show up for these get-togethers and takes the time to get in touch. It means more than you can ever appreciate.

So until the next time we meet. This has been a WRAP.